Heathrow expansion is the best option on jobs and GDP gains for every part of the UK, as the Airports Commission’s consultation deadline nears
New figures released today quantify for the first time how an expanded Heathrow will benefit every UK nation and region. The findings prove that Heathrow is the best option for both jobs and economic growth in all parts of the country.
With the Airports Commission’s consultation coming to a close next week, the data sheds new light on the aviation debate.
The independent report by QUOD, commissioned by Heathrow, confirms over half the gains from forecasted economic benefits and job creation will be made outside of London and the South East, a fact that is further endorsed by the public support Heathrow has already received from 26 Chambers of Commerce across the UK.
Regional employment benefits as a result of foreign investment and trade could total 179,800 new jobs across the UK in 2050, as long haul connections and increased freight capacity at an expanded Heathrow bring more business to the UK.
Trade is likely to play a big part in economic growth, with towns and cities across the rest of the country currently benefitting from nine times more employment from foreign investment in manufacturing than those in London and the South East. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to lead the way in research and development and the digital technology field, experiencing the greatest benefits from increased employment in these sectors.
Table 1: Comparison of employment impacts by region in 2050 (jobs)
| Expanded Gatwick | Expanded Heathrow | |
| London | 9,300 | 38,400 |
| South East | 8,000 | 33,200 |
| London & SE | 17,200 | 71,600 |
| North West | 4,800 | 15,300 |
| East | 4,100 | 12,900 |
| South West | 3,900 | 12,300 |
| West Midlands | 3,800 | 12,000 |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 3,500 | 11,200 |
| East Midlands | 3,100 | 9,800 |
| North East | 1,600 | 5,100 |
| Rest of England | 24,800 | 78,600 |
| Scotland | 4,100 | 16,100 |
| Wales | 2,200 | 8,400 |
| Northern Ireland | 1,300 | 5,000 |
| Rest of UK | 7,600 | 29,500 |
| TOTAL | 49,600 | 179,800 |
Table 2: Comparison of present value of real GDP impacts by Region (£bn 2014 prices)
Using the same analysis, the growth expected as a result of Heathrow’s expansion is significantly less than that forecast for a new runway at Gatwick in all areas across the UK. The West Midlands, for example, is forecast to receive an increase of £9.7 billion GDP for Heathrow, compared to £6.7 billion for Gatwick.
| Expanded Gatwick | Expanded Heathrow | |
| London | 18.5 | 35.1 |
| South East | 12.4 | 23.6 |
| London & SE | 30.9 | 58.6 |
| North West | 8.6 | 12.5 |
| East | 7.9 | 11.5 |
| South West | 6.9 | 10.0 |
| West Midlands | 6.7 | 9.7 |
| Yorkshire & Humber | 6.2 | 9.0 |
| East Midlands | 5.4 | 7.8 |
| North East | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Rest of England | 44.5 | 64.4 |
| Scotland | 7.9 | 14.0 |
| Wales | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| Northern Ireland | 2.2 | 3.9 |
| Rest of UK | 13.6 | 24.1 |
| TOTAL | 89.0 | 147.2 |
It is based on the Airports Commission’s baseline scenario for future growth and remains a conservative estimate of the potential economic and employment benefits that could be delivered by a new runway at Heathrow.The report adds new detail to the findings of the Airports Commission in its interim report last year, which also confirmed an expanded Heathrow would deliver the best economic outcomes for regions.
Further scenarios developed by the Commission estimate the total economic benefit of Heathrow expansion at £211 billion across the UK, almost £65 billion more than the baseline adopted for this report, demonstrating that significant additional value could potentially be secured.
John Holland-Kaye, CEO, Heathrow, said:
“The verdict is in – expansion of Heathrow will be best for every region and nation of the UK – more jobs and more economic growth. That is why 28 chambers of commerce from up and down the country are backing Heathrow, together with unions, businesses and local people. Only Heathrow can help to grow and rebalance our economy by connecting all of Britain to global growth. An expanded Heathrow can be the most modern, efficient, sustainable and best connected airport in the world – attracting more business, more investment and delivering more jobs and growth that the whole country can benefit from.”
- ENDS -
Notes to editors:
1.The Airports Commission has published its assessment of the wider economic impacts of expanding runway capacity in the South East. This provides an assessment of the impact at national level in terms of GDP and jobs which is then broken down into three broad regions - London & the South East, the Rest of England and The Rest of the UK. Heathrow Airport Ltd has commissioned Quod and Frontier Economics to provide a further assessment of how this breaks down to individual regions such as Yorkshire and the West Midlands based on previous work they have undertaken.
The assessment takes the Commission's split of impacts between the three broad regions and further disaggregates them to individual regions based on each region's share of economic activity and jobs in sectors that are likely to benefit from expansion of either Heathrow or Gatwick. The Commission expects most of the increase in jobs to be in manufacturing and in key service sectors such as financial services, telecommunications and business services. Regions with strengths in these sectors are expected to see employment growth even if they are not close to airports with links to Heathrow or Gatwick.
